To The Victor Belong the Spoils: Resource Pillage & Territorial Expansionism

This narrative traces perhaps the clearest through-line in Trump's foreign policy: the belief that American military power should be used for resource extraction, and that international law restraining such actions is for suckers. The arc began in the 2016 campaign when Trump repeatedly invoked 'to the victor belong the spoils'—a 19th century doctrine of conquest that has been illegal under international law since the Geneva Conventions. **Phase 1: The Doctrine (2016-2017)** Trump's Iraq War critique wasn't about the war's legality or the loss of life—it was that America 'didn't take the oil.' His September 2016 NBC forum appearance articulated the philosophy explicitly. When legal experts explained that seizing conquered resources would be a war crime, Trump was undeterred. On his very first day as president, standing before the CIA's Memorial Wall, he told intelligence officers 'we should have kept the oil' and added ominously, 'maybe you'll have another chance.' This wasn't metaphor. **Phase 2: Testing (2019)** The 2019 Greenland proposal—floated as if Denmark were a real estate developer with an underperforming asset—tested whether allied territories could be bullied into U.S. control. When Denmark called it 'absurd,' Trump cancelled a state visit and attacked their prime minister as 'nasty.' The same year, Trump ordered troops to remain in Syria specifically 'for the oil.' 'I like oil,' he explained. This was the first operational application of the doctrine: military deployment explicitly for resource control. **Phase 3: Escalation (2024-2025)** In December 2024, Trump escalated from bluster to threats. Greenland became an 'absolute necessity' for which he refused to rule out military force—against a NATO ally. He simultaneously threatened to 'take back' the Panama Canal and suggested Canada should become the '51st state.' He appointed a 'special envoy' to Greenland with no legal authority—creating institutional infrastructure for territorial ambition. **Phase 4: Execution (2026)** On January 3, 2026, the doctrine became military action. Operation Absolute Resolve—100+ aircraft bombing Caracas, Delta Force capturing Maduro and his wife, the blindfolded prisoner photo posted to Truth Social—was the fulfillment of the 2017 CIA speech's 'another chance.' Trump announced the U.S. would 'run the country' and that American oil companies would take over Venezuelan production. This wasn't regime change dressed as democracy promotion; it was explicitly resource extraction dressed as law enforcement (the narco-terrorism indictment). **The Pattern Reveals** Several disturbing truths emerge from the arc: 1. **Signaling works**: Trump publicly stated his intention to seize foreign resources for a decade. There was no ambiguity, no plausible deniability. He told the CIA he wanted 'another chance' to take oil. He threatened Greenland with military force. He announced the spoils doctrine at a nationally televised forum. Yet no preventive mechanism activated. 2. **Allied vs. Adversary distinction collapses**: Trump threatened to use force against Denmark (NATO ally) while expressing admiration for Putin's invasion of Ukraine. The determining factor wasn't whether a country was friend or foe—it was whether they had something Trump wanted. 3. **International law as impediment, not principle**: Legal experts explained repeatedly that 'taking the oil' would violate the Geneva Conventions. Trump's response wasn't to modify his position but to dismiss international law as weakness. Venezuela's attack was conducted without UN authorization, and Trump explicitly dismissed the legality concerns. 4. **The fig leaf**: The 2020 narco-terrorism indictment against Maduro provided just enough legal cover to claim the Venezuela operation was 'law enforcement.' But Trump's own words—'we will run the country,' announcing U.S. oil company takeovers—revealed the actual motivation. 5. **Escalation without consequence**: Each step—the 2017 CIA speech, the 2019 Greenland tantrum, the Syria oil protection mission, the 2024 threats, the 2025 envoy appointment—should have triggered alarm. Instead, each normalized the next. By the time of the Venezuela attack, 'taking the oil' had been an announced Trump policy goal for nearly a decade. The Venezuela attack stands as the realization of Trump's pre-announced neo-imperialism. The 'maybe you'll have another chance' is no longer ominous foreshadowing—it's historical record. This raises the question: with Greenland and Panama still on Trump's wishlist, and explicit endorsements of military force against allied nations, what comes next in this arc?