Trump Misleadingly Claims Murder Rate at 'Lowest in Over 125 Years' in State of the Union

In his 2026 State of the Union, Trump claimed 'the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history' and was at 'the lowest number in over 125 years.' While the Council on Criminal Justice confirmed a large decline in 2025, the '125 years' figure is misleading. Experts expect the final 2025 rate to be the lowest in at least 65 years, but data before 1960 is not comparable to modern data, and data from 1900-1930 counts all homicides (including self-defense killings), not just murders. More importantly, the crime decline began well before Trump took office in January 2025 and was already trending downward throughout the Biden presidency.

"Last year, the murder rate saw its single largest decline in recorded history. The lowest number in over 125 years." — State of the Union address to joint session of Congress, February 24, 2026