February 27, 2015 🟡 Significant

Says there is a 75–80% chance he will run for president

Speaking at CPAC, Trump told the crowd he wanted to run “so badly” and estimated a “75 to 80 percent” likelihood he would enter the 2016 race, promising that with him in charge “we will have victories again” because “we don’t have victories anymore.” The near-declaration previewed his June campaign launch and framed Obama-era policy as defeat-filled.

“I think I am going to run. I'm looking at it very seriously, more seriously than I ever have before. I would say 75 to 80 percent sure. I want to do it so badly.” — CPAC main stage remarks, February 27, 2015

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The CPAC speech preview Trump's campaign themes: border wall ('the king of building walls. Nobody can build them like Trump'), inflated economic threats (claimed 20% unemployment when official rate was 5.3-5.6%), attacks on Obamacare as a 'total lie' and 'complete disaster,' and promises of military toughness against ISIS. Trump also referenced birther controversies and called Obama an 'incompetent president,' setting the confrontational tone that would define his 2016 run.